Predicting Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Activity in April
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Recent developments in statistical prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity
Statistical forecasts of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity have been issued since 1984 by the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University (CSU) headed by William Gray. Since these initial forecasts were developed, considerable improvements in data and statistical techniques have led to improved amounts of skill in both hindcasting and forecasting of seasonal Atlantic basi...
متن کاملRevised Prediction of Seasonal Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity from 1 August
Predictions of the remainder of the season’s Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August have been issued by Gray and his colleagues at the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University since 1984. The original 1 August prediction scheme utilized several predictors, including measures of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), West African rainfall, El Niño–So...
متن کاملPredicting Tropical Cyclone Genesis
The long-term goal of this project is to provide probabilistic genesis forecast guidance to operational forecasters and develop a genesis index to provide guidance for operational dynamical model prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. Once regions of high TC genesis probability are identified, a movable, multi-nested version of the COAMPS with resolution of roughly 3 km or less in the inn...
متن کاملA Bayesian Regression Approach for Predicting Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific
In this study, a Poisson generalized linear regression model cast in the Bayesian framework is applied to forecast the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the central North Pacific (CNP) in the peak hurricane season (July–September) using large-scale environmental variables available up to the antecedent May and June. Specifically, five predictor variables are considered: sea surface temperatures...
متن کاملOn Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity*
In this study, an estimate of the expected number of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) that were missed by the observing system in the presatellite era (between 1878 and 1965) is developed. The significance of trends in both number and duration since 1878 is assessed and these results are related to estimated changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the “main development region” (“MDR”). Th...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Weather and Forecasting
سال: 2009
ISSN: 1520-0434,0882-8156
DOI: 10.1175/2008waf2222139.1